The effect of social distance measures on COVID-19 epidemics in Europe: an interrupted time series analysis

Following the introduction of unprecedented stay-at-home national policies, the COVID-19 pandemic recently started declining in Europe. Our research aims were to characterize the changepoint in the flow of the COVID-19 epidemic in each European country and to evaluate the association of the level of social distancing with the observed decline in the national epidemics. Interrupted time series analyses were conducted in 28 European countries. Social distance index was calculated based on Google Community Mobility Reports. Changepoints were estimated by threshold regression, national findings were analyzed by Poisson regression, and the effect of social distancing in mixed effects Poisson regression model. Our findings identified the most probable changepoints in 28 European countries. Before changepoint, incidence of new COVID-19 cases grew by 24% per day on average. From the changepoint, this growth rate was reduced to 0.9%, 0.3% increase, and to 0.7% and 1.7% decrease by increasing social distancing quartiles. The beneficial effect of higher social distance quartiles (i.e., turning the increase into decline) was statistically significant for the fourth quartile. Notably, many countries in lower quartiles also achieved a flat epidemic curve. In these countries, other plausible COVID-19 containment measures could contribute to controlling the first wave of the disease. The association of social distance quartiles with viral spread could also be hindered by local bottlenecks in infection control. Our results allow for moderate optimism related to the gradual lifting of social distance measures in the general population, and call for specific attention to the protection of focal micro-societies enriching high-risk elderly subjects, including nursing homes and chronic care facilities.