Landscape dynamics on insular environments of South-east mediterranean Europe

Mediterranean islands are characterized by high biodiversity and cultural value. As the human demand for natural resources increases, the need for assessing the future landscape is prerequisite. This study aimed to simulate the future landscape composition and structure of the Ionian Islands (Western Greece). To do so, we integrated the Future Land Use Model and Markov Chain analysis, taking into consideration fifteen socio-environmental predictors. The results showed that the landscape of the Ionian Islands is expected to develop into two major patterns. The first pattern refers to the expected increase of forests and scrublands, shaping a homogenous landscape. Whereas, the second pattern reveals an expected degradation of natural vegetation, shaping a highly fragmented landscape. In all circumstances, the built-up areas are anticipated to extend, mainly near to touristic hot-spots. This study demonstrated that contemporary spatial simulation approaches, along with various socio-environmental factors offer an important tool for effective landscape management.

Automated summary

This study aimed to simulate the future landscape composition and structure of the Ionian Islands in Western Greece. The results showed two major patterns: an increase in forests and scrublands, shaping a homogenous landscape, and a degradation of natural vegetation, shaping a highly fragmented landscape. In both scenarios, built-up areas are expected to extend, primarily near tourist hotspots.