Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects.Icerya aegyptiaca(Douglas) andI. purchasiMaskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genusIceryaSignoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these twoIceryaspecies are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps ofI. aegyptiacaandI. purchasiwere created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area ofI. aegyptiacawould be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes forI. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable forI. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable forI. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas ofI. aegyptiacawill become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that min temperature of coldest month was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genusIcerya.