Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7
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Funding
- NSF [AGS-1921413]
- NASA [80NSSC17K0266]
- Early-Career Research Fellowship from the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
- Rice Houston Engagement and Recovery Effort Fund
- Columbia Climate and Life Fellowship, CCL
- NOAA [NA16OAR4310079, NA18OAR4310277]
- New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) [103862]
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The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but?consistently across models?stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21(st) century. How climate change affects the translation speed of tropical cyclones has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors use models to show that future regional changes in the steering winds lead to faster-moving tropical cyclones as they make landfall in Texas.
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