Journal
TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES
Volume 68, Issue 2, Pages 747-757Publisher
WILEY-HINDAWI
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13739
Keywords
brucellosis; spatial trend; time trend
Categories
Funding
- National Key Research and Development Program [2017YFD0500305, 2017YFD0500901]
- National Key Program for Infectious Disease of China [2018ZX10101002-002]
- State Key Program of National Natural Science of China [U1808202]
- NSFC [31961143024]
- Major science and technology projects of Inner Mongolia of China [2019ZD06]
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The study revealed that all regions in Liaoning Province were stable counties and the risk of brucellosis exhibited a slow decline over time without a clear overall trend. Some counties showed a faster decline in disease risk compared to the overall trend.
Brucellosis is a natural epidemic zoonotic disease. Liaoning province, north-east of China, has been among the top 10 provinces with highest brucellosis incidence. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of brucellosis in Liaoning Province from 2006 through 2017 was analysed using the Bayesian theory of space-time modelling. The study found that in Liaoning Province, (a) all regions of the entire study area were stable counties; (b) the risk of brucellosis declined slowly with time without an obvious trend; (c) the declining trend of disease risk in three sub-hot-spot counties was faster than the overall trend, whereas in other counties, the trend was similar to the overall trend. Furthermore, the time and spatial trends of brucellosis incidence in Liaoning Province were calculated and analysed. These results may provide a theoretical and scientific basis for the public health department to develop targeted effective prevention and control measures for the disease.
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