Evaluating the validity of dengue clinical-epidemiological criteria for diagnosis in patients residing in a Brazilian endemic area

Background: We evaluated the validity of clinical diagnosis compared with Laboratory diagnosis of dengue in a retrospective sample of patients in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil. Methods: Our sample included 148 299 clinically (56.3%) or Laboratory-diagnosed (43.7%) dengue cases. We compared the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of dengue patients' demographic and clinical characteristics with Laboratory-based diagnosis. We used Logistic regressions to estimate the correlation between clinical and Laboratory diagnosis of dengue and a full set of dengue signs and symptoms. Results: We found substantial variability in sensitivity and specificity of signs and symptoms ranging from 0.8-81.1 and 21.5-99.6, respectively. Thrombocytopenia exhibited the highest PPV (92.0) and Lowest NPV (42.2) and was the only symptom showing agreement with Laboratory-confirmed dengue (gyp = 0.38). The presence of exanthema and thrombocytopenia Led to a greater Likelihood of concordant clinical and Laboratory diagnoses (exanthema: OR: 4.23; 95% CI: 2.09 to 8.57; thrombocytopenia: OR: 4.02; 95% CI: 1.32 to 12.27). Conclusions: We found substantial variation in sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of dengue signs and symptoms. For accuracy, clinical and Laboratory diagnosis of dengue should be performed concurrently. When Laboratory tests are not available, we suggest focusing on the clinical manifestations most associated with dengue.