Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 369, Issue 6508, Pages 1255-+Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.abd2161
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- Medical Research Council-Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award [MR/S0195/1, FAPESP 18/14389-0]
- FAPESP [2018/17176-8, 2019/12000-1, 18/14389-0, 2018/25468-9, 2017/13981-0, 2019/24251-9, 2018/09383-3, 2019/07544-2, 2019/21301-5, 2018/14933-2, 16/18445-7, 20/04836-0, 2020/04558-0, 2016/00194-8]
- Wellcome Trust [204311/Z/16/Z]
- Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship [204311/Z/16/Z]
- Clarendon Fund
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
- Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS, Belgium)
- European Union [874850]
- CNPq [303170/2017-4, 312688/2017-2, 439119/2018-9, 310627/2018-4, 408338/2018-0]
- FAPERJ [E-26/202.826/2018, 202.922/2018]
- CAPES
- Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship - Wellcome Trust [206471/Z/17/Z]
- FAPEMIG [APQ-00475-20]
- Instituto Nacional de Ciancia e Tecnologia em Dengue (INCT Dengue) [465425/2014-3]
- FINEP [01.16.0078.00]
- Wellcome Trust ARTIC network [206298/Z/17/Z]
- European Research Council [725422]
- Oxford Martin School
- U.K. Medical Research Council
- U.K. Department for International Development
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology
- Community Jameel
- FMUSP
- Wellcome Trust [206298/Z/17/Z] Funding Source: Wellcome Trust
- MRC [MC_PC_19012, MR/J014370/1, MR/R015600/1, MR/S019510/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [18/14389-0, 16/18445-7, 20/04836-0] Funding Source: FAPESP
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Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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