Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 117, Issue 27, Pages 15443-15449Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002722117
Keywords
ice core; volcano; Okmok; Rome; climate forcing
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation [1925417, 1023672, 0909541, 1824770]
- John Fell Oxford University Press (OUP) Research Fund
- All Souls College, Oxford
- Clare Hall, Cambridge through the Sir Nicholas Shackleton Fellowship
- Irish Research Council Laureate Award (Climates of Conflict in Ancient Babylonia project) [IRCLA/2017/303]
- Swiss National Science Foundation [18001]
- European Research Council under the European Union [820047, CIG14-631752]
- Irish Research Council (IRC) [IRCLA/2017/303] Funding Source: Irish Research Council (IRC)
- European Research Council (ERC) [820047] Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC)
- Directorate For Geosciences
- ICER [1824770] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 degrees C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.
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