Population dynamics of threatened felids in response to forest cover change in Sumatra

Habitat loss caused by deforestation is a global driver of predator population declines. However, few studies have focussed on these effects for mesopredator populations, particularly the cryptic and elusive species inhabiting tropical rainforests. We conducted camera trapping from 2009-11 and 2014-16, and used occupancy modelling to understand trends of Sumatran mesopredator occupancy in response to forest loss and in the absence of threats from poaching. By comparing the two survey periods we quantify the trend of occupancy for three sympatric felid species in the tropical rainforest landscape of Kerinci Seblat National Park. Between 2000 and 2014, forest loss across four study sites ranged from 2.6% to 8.4%. Of three threatened felid species, overall occupancy by Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) and Asiatic golden cat (Catopuma temminckii) remained stable across all four areas between the two survey periods, whilst marbled cat (Pardofelis marmorata) occupancy increased. In general occupancy estimates for the three species were: lower in lowland forest and increased to attain their highest values in hill forest, where they declined thereafter; increased further from the forest edge; positively correlated with distance to river, except for golden cat in the second survey where the relationship was negative; and, increased further from active deforestation, especially for clouded leopard in the second survey, but this was some 10-15km away. Our study offers fresh insights into these little known mesopredators in Sumatra and raises the practically important question of how far-reaching is the shadow of the encroachment and road development that typified this deforestation.