Vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to climate change effects: The case of the Yucatan Peninsula

Climate change adds an additional pressure on mangrove health, and the present study evaluated mangroves' vulnerability to sea level rises at four sites (Los Petenes, Celestun, Cancun, and Mahahual) on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were evaluated on a scale from 1 to 5 to identify characteristics that cause the mangrove vulnerability. Mangroves in sites with different characteristics had different vulnerabilities, despite having similar exposure. The best-conserved mangroves had low vulnerability and were in good health because of their sensitivity, whereas mangroves affected by human activity were more vulnerable in terms of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Overall, Mahahual had the highest vulnerability (3.0) because of its low tidal range (similar to 5 cm), changes in precipitation (-25 mm year(-1)), poor ecological conditions (low basal area without positive changes), low resilience of adjacent ecosystems (poor condition of coral reefs and seagrass meadows), and poor mangrove protection. This vulnerability assessment method identifies factors that affect vulnerability and can be used to develop management strategies that decrease mangrove vulnerability to climate change by reducing sensitivity and increasing the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem and the surrounding communities.