Journal
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
Volume 101, Issue 3, Pages 1681-1692Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11071-020-05749-6
Keywords
SEIR model; Bifurcation; Prediction; Coupling
Categories
Funding
- Polish National Science Centre, MAESTRO Programme [2013/08/A/ST8/00780]
- OPUS Programme [2018/29/B/ST8/00457]
- Iran Science Elites Federation [M-97171]
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Coronavirus disease 2019 is a recent strong challenge for the world. In this paper, an epidemiology model is investigated as a model for the development of COVID-19. The propagation of COVID-19 through various sub-groups of society is studied. Some critical parameters, such as the background of mortality without considering the disease state and the speed of moving people from infected to resistance, affect the conditions of society. In this paper, early warning indicators are used to predict the bifurcation points in the system. In the interaction of various sub-groups of society, each sub-group can have various parameters. Six cases of the sub-groups interactions are studied. By coupling these sub-groups, various dynamics of the whole society are investigated.
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