4.6 Article

A multiscale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world

Journal

MATHEMATICAL MODELS & METHODS IN APPLIED SCIENCES
Volume 30, Issue 8, Pages 1591-1651

Publisher

WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD
DOI: 10.1142/S0218202520500323

Keywords

COVID-19; living systems; immune competition; complexity; multiscale problems; spatial patterns; networks; intracellular infection dynamics; viral quasispecies; virus structure modelling; SARS-CoV-2

Funding

  1. Granada University
  2. modelling Nature Group, Spain
  3. Italian Research Council, IMATI, CNR, Pavia, Italy
  4. EPSRC [EP/R023204/1]
  5. Royal Society Wolfson Fellowship [RSWF\R1\180009]
  6. European Union [822781]
  7. CONICET [PIP 11220150100500CO]
  8. Secyt UNC [33620180100326CB]
  9. US National Science Foundation [DMS-1763272]
  10. Simons Foundation for a NSF-Simons Center for Multiscale Cell Fate Research [594598QN]
  11. US National Institutes of Health [1U54CA217378-01A1, P30CA062203]
  12. [110145]
  13. [110146]
  14. [DMS-1714973]
  15. [DMS-1936833]
  16. EPSRC [EP/R023204/1, EP/K028286/1] Funding Source: UKRI

Ask authors/readers for more resources

This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called SARS-CoV-2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome; corona virus n.2. The study is developed within a multiscale framework accounting for the interaction of different spatial scales, from the small scale of the virus itself and cells, to the large scale of individuals and further up to the collective behaviour of populations. An interdisciplinary vision is developed thanks to the contributions of epidemiologists, immunologists and economists as well as those of mathematical modellers. The first part of the contents is devoted to understanding the complex features of the system and to the design of a modelling rationale. The modelling approach is treated in the second part of the paper by showing both how the virus propagates into infected individuals, successfully and not successfully recovered, and also the spatial patterns, which are subsequently studied by kinetic and lattice models. The third part reports the contribution of research in the fields of virology, epidemiology, immune competition, and economy focussed also on social behaviours. Finally, a critical analysis is proposed looking ahead to research perspectives.

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