Are industrial carbon emissions allocations in developing regions equitable? A case study of the northwestern provinces in China

The difficulty for developing regions to fulfil their industrial carbon emission control target commitments is to take into account the socio-economic and environmental governance. It is necessary not only to accelerate the process of industrialization, but also to rationally allocate carbon emission reduction tasks. This paper takes the northwestern provinces of China as a case study based on the calculation of the industrial carbon emissions of each province from 2006 to 2017. The Gini coefficients such as the industrial economy contribution coefficient, industrial employment contribution coefficient, and carbon carrying coefficient are constructed to evaluate the equity of regional industrial carbon emissions. The results show that the carbon pressure index in the northwestern provinces is increasing, carbon emissions are growing much faster than the carbon carrying capacity, and the differences among the provinces are obvious. The industrial economy contribution, the industrial employment contribution, and the carbon carrying Gini coefficients fluctuate significantly. Carbon emissions inequity has not been suppressed with the socio-economic development, and the Matthew effect is even more prominent. Evaluating the equity of carbon emissions allocation will help to rationally allocate carbon emission reduction tasks among provinces and achieve national emission reduction targets. Accordingly, recommendations are provided for formulating a differentiated carbon management policy, strengthening provincial cooperation, determining the provincial ecological function position, and improving the equity of regional carbon emissions allocation.