Policy impacts on Municipal Solid Waste management in Shanghai: A system dynamics model analysis

Shanghai is the first city to implement Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) sorting regulation in China, and it also has policies on economy, demography, MSW collection and treatment. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the impacts of these polices on MSW management for Shanghai. System dynamics model is a prevailing method to simulate impacts of various policies on MSW management from a dynamic and complex perspective. Besides, different from existing studies that consider only a certain process of MSW management, our system dynamic model simulate the entire process of MSW production, sorting, collection and final treatment. Seven scenarios are set to simulate the impacts of these policies. Results show that economic policy has great impact on future MSW management. MSWgeneration in 2035 will decline by 3.25 Million tonnes if Gross Domestic Production growth rate decrease by 1%. Demographic policy will reduce MSW generation per capita, but increase the total amount of MSW generation. MSW sorting policy will decrease total demand of MSW landfill, but soar the demand of food waste treatment facility. Treatment method policy will not play a big role in decreasing total demand of MSW landfill. Finally, policy implications including prudent economic and demographic policy, strengthening biochemical treatment capacity and comprehensive utilization of residues are proposed. It is anticipated that this system dynamic model and policy implications can contribute to the MSW management of other 45 Chinese cities that are planning to implement sorting regulation soon, or even other global cities. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.