Transportation CO2 emission decoupling: Empirical evidence from countries along the belt and road

The belt and road has developed into the most active economic corridor in the world, with its economic exchanges greatly stimulating the demand for transportation. Its development also poses greater challenges to those seeking to reduce the level of CO2 emissions within the transportation sector. This paper selects panel data from 51 countries along the belt and road over the 2000-2014 period. First, using the Theil model, we analyze the transportation sector CO2 emissions intensity trends from countries along the belt and road for the period under observation. The Tapio decoupling model is also conducted to better understand the relationship between the overall and regional CO2 emissions and transportation industry growth for countries along belt and road. Additionally, using ArcGIS, the significant evolving regions of CO2 emission intensity in the transportation sector is visualized, and a series of relevant policy suggestions are put forward. The empirical results indicate that the output value and CO2 emissions of the transportation sector of all the countries along the belt and road increased, however the CO2 emissions intensity showed an overall decline with a polarization trend. This study also found that there are three states of decoupling: weak decoupling, recessive coupling and expansive negative decoupling over the period of analysis. Moreover, by offering different regions along the belt and road decoupling state, this study can provide a reference for governments by proposing carbon-reduction policies and promoting green developments within the transportation sector. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.