Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Volume 95, Issue -, Pages 308-310Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
Keywords
Coronavirus disease 2019; COVID-19; Basic reproduction number; Republic of Korea; Italy
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Funding
- General Research Fund of Research Grants Council of Hong Kong [15205119]
- Alibaba (China)Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project
- Free Orientation Project of the Research Promotion Programme for Discipline Talents of Xinglin Scholars [ZYTS2019023]
- Coronavirus Disease Special Project of Xinglin Scholars of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine [XGZX2013]
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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R-0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
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