Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Volume 97, Issue -, Pages 96-101Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.091
Keywords
Corona virus: market hazard; Transmission; Epidemic
Categories
Funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI [18K17368, 20H03940]
- Leading Initiative for Excellent Young Researchers (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology of Japan)
- JSPS KAKENHI [18K19336, 19H05330]
- NSF as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program [1414374]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [20H03940, 19H05330, 18K17368, 18K19336] Funding Source: KAKEN
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Objectives: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) originating from Wuhan spread rapidly throughout China. While its origin remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market with the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated. Methods: Using the daily series of COVID-19 incidence, stratified according to contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for market-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the reporting probability, and the early effects of public health interventions. Results: We estimated R at 0.24 (95% CrI: 0.01-1.38) for market-to-human transmission and 2.37 (95% CrI: 2.08-2.71) for human-to-human transmission during the early spread in China (2019-2020). Moreover, we estimated that the reporting rate for cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 2-34 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying COVID-19 cases. Conclusions: Our R estimate tied to market-to-human transmission had substantial uncertainty, but it was significantly lower compared with the reproduction number driving human-to-human transmission. Our results also suggest that asymptomatic and subclinical infections constitute a substantial component of the COVID-19 morbidity burden. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/4.0/).
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