A data-driven approach to study the role of interconnectors in a future low-carbon electricity supply system

This paper investigates the potential role of the electricity interconnectors in improving the security of supply in Great Britain (GB) in 2030. Real electricity demand and price data for GB and France in 2016 were used to understand the relationship between power exchange between the two countries and their wholesale electricity prices. A linear programming optimisation model was developed to find the economic power dispatch. Two interconnection links were considered; two-way trade interconnector with a capacity of 5.4 GW and a 12.3 GW import-only interconnector between GB and other states. The GB-France link transmits electricity from cheaper system to the more expensive one. The total electricity demand in 2030 will be 406 TWh. Gas-fired power plants w/wo CCS will provide 83 TWh of the total electricity demand, whereas nuclear power plants will produce 74 TWh. In addition, wind farms and solar PVs are expected to deliver similar to 120 TWh electricity. CHP units will provide 88 TWh electricity in 2030. The electricity traded between GB and France in 2030 was found to be 33 TWh, which is 160% larger compared with 2016. The power import from France is about 27 TWh and occurs in 59% of the time. For 64% of the time, the interconnector with France is fully loaded. The electricity imported via the 12.3 GW interconnector in 2030 is 1 TWh and mainly occurs during winter-time when the demand in GB is high. De-rated capacity margin was calculated based on instantaneous electricity demand and varies between -2% and 139%. The impact of the price of the imported electricity via the 12.3 GW link was investigated. Increasing the price of the imported electricity via the 12.3 GW link results in a higher capacity factor for all the generation options except the 12.3 GW interconnector link.

Automated summary

This paper investigates the potential role of electricity interconnectors between Great Britain and France in 2030, analyzing their power exchange and wholesale electricity prices using a linear programming optimization model. The study found that in 2030, GB will trade 33 TWh of electricity with France through interconnectors, indicating a significant impact on improving supply security.