Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 14, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088662
Keywords
high resolution; tropical cyclones; future change; tracking algorithms; model bias; CMIP6
Categories
Funding
- UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
- PRIMAVERA project - European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme [641727]
- Blue-Action project - European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme [727852]
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Award [NNX16AG62G]
- U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Award [DE-SC0016605]
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund by the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (ERCA) of Japan [2RF-1701]
- Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) Grant by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan [JPMXD0717935457]
- U.S. National Science Foundation [1852977]
- NERC [noc010010, ncas10016, jwcrp01003] Funding Source: UKRI
- NASA [904722, NNX16AG62G] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
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Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
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