Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 14, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088589
Keywords
tropical cyclone; life cycle; intensity; rapid intensification; rapid weakening
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Funding
- UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
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In this study a comprehensive picture of the changing intensity life cycle of major (Category 3 and higher) tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Over the past decades, the lifetime maximum intensity has increased, but there has also been a significant decrease in duration of time spent at intensities greater than Category 1. These compensating effects have maintained a stable global mean-accumulated cyclone energy of individual major TCs. The global mean duration of major TCs has shortened by about 1 day from 1982 to 2018. There has been both faster intensification (Categories 1 to 3) and weakening (Categories 3 to 1) by about 40%. The probabilities of rapid intensification and rapid weakening have both risen in the period 2000-2018 compared to 1982-1999. A statistically significant anticorrelation is found between the lifetime maximum intensity and the following duration of the final weakening. This suggests an element of self-regulation of TC life cycles.
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