Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 48, Issue 5-6, Pages 1987-2003Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3186-4
Keywords
Regional climate model; Convection-permitting resolution; Climate change; COSMO-CLM; Convection; Atmospheric processes
Categories
Funding
- KLIWA-project Bodenabtrag durch Wassererosion in Folge von Klimaveranderungen from Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Public Health
- Ministry of Economics, Climate Protection, Energy and Regional Planning of the German State Rheinland-Pfalz
- Ministry of the Environment, Climate Protection and the Energy Sector Baden-Wurttemberg
- French National Research Agency (ANR) [ANR-12-SENV-001]
- German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
- SMHI
Ask authors/readers for more resources
To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available