Examining Uncertainty in In Vitro-In Vivo Extrapolation Applied in Fish Bioconcentration Models

In vitro biotransformation rates were determined for 30 chemicals, mostly fragrance ingredients, using trout liver S9 fractions (RT-S9) and incorporated into in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) models to predict bioconcentration factors (BCFs). Predicted BCFs were compared against empirical BCFs to explore potential major uncertainties involved in the in vitro methods and IVIVE models: (i) in vitro chemical test concentrations; (ii) different gill uptake rate constant calculations (k(1)); (iii) protein binding (different calculations and measurement of the fraction of unbound chemical, f(U)); (iv) species differences; and (v) extrahepatic biotransformation. Predicted BCFs were within 0.5 log units for 44% of the chemicals compared to empirical BCFs, whereas 56% were overpredicted by >0.5 log units. This trend of overprediction was reduced by alternative k(1) calculations to 32% of chemicals being overpredicted. Moreover, hepatic in vitro rates scaled to whole body biotransformation rates (k(B)) were compared against in vivo k(B) estimates. In vivo k(B) was underestimated for 79% of the chemicals. Neither lowering the test concentration, nor incorporation of new measured f(U) values, nor species matching avoided the tendency to overpredict BCFs indicating that further improvements to the IVIVE models are needed or extrahepatic biotransformation plays an underestimated role.