A National Estimate of Methane Leakage from Pipeline Mains in Natural Gas Local Distribution Systems

We estimate methane emissions from U.S. local distribution natural gas (NG) pipes using data collected from an advanced mobile leak detection (AMLD platform. We estimate that there are 630,000 leaks in U.S. distribution mains, resulting in methane emissions of 0.69 Tg/year (95% cr int: 0.25, 1.23). Total emissions are calculated as the product of activity factors and emissions factors. Our analysis leveraged data on >4000 leak indications found using AMLD, combined with utility pipeline GIS information, to allow us to estimate activity factors. We derive emissions factors from AMLD emission rate estimates and correct these emissions factors based on data from infield studies assessing AMLD emissions estimates. Finally, we quantify uncertainty in both emissions factors and activity factors and propagate the uncertainty to our total emissions estimate. In modeling leak frequency, we find a clear interaction between pipeline material and age with the leakiness of all material types increasing with age. Our national methane emissions estimate is approximately 5x greater (95% cr int: 1.7x, 8.7x) than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's current greenhouse gas inventory estimate for pipeline mains in local distribution systems due to both a larger estimated number of leaks and better characterization of the upper tail of the skewed distribution of emission rates.