Optimal sediment transport for morphodynamic model validation

Although commonly used for the validation of morphological predictions, point-wise accuracy metrics, such as the root-mean-squared error (RMSE), are not well suited to demonstrate the quality of a high-variability prediction; in the presence of (often inevitable) location errors, the comparison of depth values per grid point tends to favour predictions that underestimate variability. In order to overcome this limitation, this paper presents a novel diagnostic tool that defines the distance between predicted and observed morphological fields in terms of an optimal sediment transport field, which moves the misplaced sediment from the predicted to the observed morphology. This optimal corrective transport field has the cheapest quadratic transportation cost and is relatively easily found through a parameter-free and symmetric solution procedure solving an elliptic partial differential equation. Our method, which we named effective transport difference (ETD), is a variation to a partial differential equation approach to the Monge-Kantorovich L-2 optimal transport problem. As a new error metric, we propose the root-mean-squared transport error (RMSTE) as the root-mean-squared value of the optimal transport field. We illustrate the advantages of the RMSTE for simple 1D and 2D cases as well as for more realistic morphological fields, generated with Delft3D, for an idealized case of a tidal inlet developing from an initially highly schematized geometry. The results show that by accounting for the spatial structure of morphological fields, the RMSTE, as opposed to the RMSE, is able to discriminate between predictions that differ in the misplacement distance of predicted morphological features, and avoids the consistent favouring of the underprediction of morphological variability that the RMSE is prone to.