The socioeconomic and policy drivers of China's regional energy consumption: a study of Sichuan Province

To facilitate a better understanding of China's regional energy consumption, this study develops a coupled framework to analyze the socioeconomic and policy drivers of the evolution of Sichuan province's energy consumption. The results show that during 2002-2016, GDP per capita was the most significant driver of energy consumption, accounting for 185.16% of the total change, followed by economic structure (4.02%). Energy intensity has been at the center of Sichuan's energy policies and the only factor exerting downward pressure on energy consumption, accounting for - 91.72% of the total change, although the reducing effect was not stable through the years. By contrast, although the government has continuously stressed economic restructuring for energy conservation, the relevant policies have been largely ineffective. Except for major social emergencies, such as the Wenchuan earthquake, the basic energy strategy has been focused on reducing coal consumption, stabilizing the petroleum supply and encouraging the development and use of natural gas. In addition, the key indicators of energy consumption control basically showed cyclical trends with respect to the provincial 4-year plan (FYP), i.e., increasing (or decreasing slowly) in the first 3-4 years of a FYP and then decreasing (or decreasing more rapidly) during the last 1-2 years. Therefore, this study suggests the building of a FYP-centered energy policy system to integrate the various policies issued by different departments and the introduction of more market-oriented approaches for energy conservation to curb deficiencies in the administration-driven economic restructuring. [GRAPHICS] .