Journal
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
Volume 135, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846
Keywords
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic; Wuhan case study; Basic reproduction number; Stability; Sensitivity analysis; Numerical simulations
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Funding
- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [UIDB/04106/2020]
- FCT [PD/BD/150273/2019]
- Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) of Spain
- European Fund for Regional Development (FEDER) [MTM2016-75140-P]
- Xunta de Galicia [ED431C 2019/02]
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [PD/BD/150273/2019] Funding Source: FCT
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We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability of the disease free equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number, and we investigate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the variation of each one of its parameters. Numerical simulations show the suitability of the proposed COVID-19 model for the outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, China. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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