Journal
APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
Volume 89, Issue -, Pages 49-72Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2020.07.019
Keywords
Artificial intelligence; Combined forecasting system; Multi-objective optimization; Wind-speed forecasting; Volterra forecasting model
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71671029]
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Wind-speed forecasting is crucial for the efficient utilization of wind energy, but accurate prediction is challenging due to nonlinearity and chaotic characteristics. A machine learning-based forecasting system incorporating advanced optimization algorithms and no negative constraint theory has been proposed, showing superior performance in empirical studies.
Wind-speed forecasting plays an important role in the efficient utilization of wind energy. However, accurate and stable forecasting of wind-speed series is challenging, considering the nonlinearity and chaotic characteristics of wind. Moreover, the limitations of individual forecasting models are ignored, which invariably leads to poor forecasting precision. Therefore, here, a wind-speed forecasting system based on two types of machine learning approaches (decomposition-ensemble and multi-objective optimization) is proposed, which addresses the nonlinearity and chaotic characteristics of wind-speed series well. In this system, the advanced optimization algorithm and no negative constraint theory determine the weights of results decomposed and forecasted by the sub-models. An empirical study using 10 min and 30 min interval datasets shows that the combined forecasting system outperforms comparison models and has advantages for wind-speed forecasting. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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