Journal
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE MEDICINE
Volume 59, Issue 4, Pages 493-503Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011
Keywords
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Funding
- City University of New York's Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality [R01HS023317]
- U.S. Agency for International Development [AID-OAA-A-15-00064]
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development [U01HD086861, 5R01HD086013-02]
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences through the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study network [R01 GM127512]
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Introduction: Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing. Methods: In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination. Results: Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5-3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%-86%, 61%-62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages. Conclusions: This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing). (C) 2020 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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