4.7 Article

Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) with fractional derivative

Journal

ALEXANDRIA ENGINEERING JOURNAL
Volume 59, Issue 4, Pages 2379-2389

Publisher

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2020.02.033

Keywords

Corona virus; Fractional mathematical model; Stability results; Real data; Numerical results

Funding

  1. Free state university

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The present paper describes the mathematical modeling and dynamics of a novel corona virus (2019-nCoV). We describe the brief details of interaction among the bats and unknown hosts, then among the peoples and the infections reservoir (seafood market). The seafood marked are con-sidered the main source of infection when the bats and the unknown hosts (may be wild animals) leaves the infection there. The purchasing of items from the seafood market by peoples have the ability to infect either asymptomatically or symptomatically. We reduced the model with the assumptions that the seafood market has enough source of infection that can be effective to infect people. We present the mathematical results of the model and then formulate a fractional model. We consider the available infection cases for January 21, 2020, till January 28, 2020 and parame-terized the model. We compute the basic reproduction number for the data is R-0 approximate to 2:4829. The fractional model is then solved numerically by presenting many graphical results, which can be help-ful for the infection minimization. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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