A Novel 4-gene Score to Predict Survival, Distant Metastasis and Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy in Breast Cancer

We generated a 4-gene score with genes upregulated in LM2-4, a metastatic variant of MDA-MB-231 (DOK 4, HCCS, PGF, and SHCBP1) that was strongly associated with disease-free survival (DFS) in TCGA cohort (hazard ratio [HR]>1.2, p < 0.02). The 4-gene score correlated with overall survival of TCGA (HR = 1.44, p < 0.001), which was validated with DFS and disease-specific survival of METABRIC cohort. The 4-gene score was able to predict worse survival or clinically aggressive tumors, such as high Nottingham pathological grade and advanced cancer staging. High score was associated with worse survival in the hormonal receptor (HR)-positive/Her2-negative subtype. High score enriched cell proliferation-related gene sets in GSEA. The score was high in primary tumors that originated, in and metastasized to, brain and lung, and it predicted worse progression-free survival for metastatic tumors. Good tumor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy was accompanied by score reduction. High scores were also predictive of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HR-positive/Her2-negative subtype. High score tumors had increased expression of T cell exhaustion marker genes, suggesting that the score may also be a biomarker for immunotherapy response. Our novel 4-gene score with both prognostic and predictive values may, therefore, be clinically useful particularly in HR-positive breast cancer.