Spatial and Multicriteria Analysis of Dimension Stones and Crushed Rocks Quarrying in the Context of Sustainable Regional Development: Case Study of Lower Silesia (Poland)

This study aimed to analyze and assess the spatial and temporal trends in distribution of reserves and production of igneous and metamorphic dimension stones and crushed rocks in the Lower Silesia region, which with 90% of total supply is the key source region of these rock raw materials in Poland. The research utilized descriptive statistics to examine temporal variations of production, as well as to determine sufficiency of these resources for four different scenarios and seven main lithological groups of rocks. Spatial statistics in the geographic information system was used to map changes in spatial distribution of production with the density function, as well as to determine areas of highest concentration in the 2010-2018 period. Then, 169 communes in the region were assessed using the multicriteria analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique to identify local communities prospective for development of this mining sector. Strong, positive correlation (r = 0.645) between year to year production change with annual rate of gross domestic product was determined. Sufficiency of economic reserves was estimated, in four scenarios, as being the lowest for melaphyre and porphyry (25-49 years), and the highest for marble (380-389 years). Reserves of basalt and amphibolite should last for approximately 50 years (32-60 and 36-67 years, respectively), granite for 82 to 110 years, and gabbro and gneiss for over 100 years (78-159 and 76-189 years, respectively). Maps revealed a possible trend of increasing production in quarries located in the central and eastern parts of Lower Silesia, whereas multicriteria analysis allowed for the identification of nine communes with the highest potential for rock raw material quarrying. The practical outcome of this study is a knowledge database for authorities, upon which sustainable management of regional rock raw materials can be based in the context of economic, social, and environmental impacts of their extraction.