Shifting Hydrological Processes in a Canadian Agroforested Catchment due to a Warmer and Wetter Climate

This study examines the hydrological sensitivity of an agroforested catchment to changes in temperature and precipitation. A physically based hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to simulate the hydrological processes over 23 years in the Acadie River Catchment in southern Quebec. The observed air temperature and precipitation were perturbed linearly based on existing climate change projections, with warming of up to 8 degrees C and an increase in total precipitation up to 20%. The results show that warming causes a decrease in blowing snow transport and sublimation losses from blowing snow, canopy-intercepted snowfall and the snowpack. Decreasing blowing snow transport leads to reduced spatial variability in peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and a more synchronized snow cover depletion across the catchment. A 20% increase in precipitation is not sufficient to counteract the decline in annual peak SWE caused by a 1 degrees C warming. On the other hand, peak spring streamflow increases by 7% and occurs 20 days earlier with a 1 degrees C warming and a 20% increase in precipitation. However, when warming exceeds 1.5 degrees C, the catchment becomes more rainfall dominated and the peak flow and its timing follows the rainfall rather than snowmelt regime. Results from this study can be used for sustainable farming development and planning in regions with hydroclimatic characteristics similar to the Acadie River Catchment, where climate change may have a significant impact on the dominating hydrological processes.