Sensitivity Analysis of a Groundwater Infiltration Model and Sea-Level Rise Applications for Coastal Sewers

Groundwater elevations in coastal cities will be affected by climate-change-induced sea level rise (SLR) and wastewater collection systems will experience increased groundwater infiltration (GWI) due to greater submergence of sewer pipes. Commercial sewer hydraulics models consider GWI to be a constant quantity estimated via a low-flow monitoring campaign and are incapable of predicting future flows due to changes in GW elevations. A global sensitivity analyses conducted for a two-dimensional GWI pipe flow model found the most important input parameters are groundwater head and surrounding soil hydraulic conductivity. Two case studies were conducted considering a range of pipe defect severity to estimate increases in GWI associated with predictions of future SLR. The findings are that SLR will begin to have noticeable impacts in terms of increased average dry weather flow (ADWF) as soon as 2030 (3-10%) and will increase dramatically in the future (10-29% by 2050, and 50% or more by 2100). Daily and seasonal tide ranges affect the normal diurnal flow variations by between 3% and 10%. The estimation methodology and case studies described here illustrate the coming future importance of SLR effects on GWI in coastal collection systems that should be included in facilities planning and design.