Effects of the polycentric spatial structures of Chinese city regions on CO2 concentrations

The environmental sustainability of polycentric spatial structures in urban planning must be evaluated to ensure the sustainable development of city regions. Given the mixed conclusions of previous studies, as well as the lack of information on reliable methods of assessment and quantifiable mechanisms, a three-year dataset for prefecture-level and above city regions in China and spatial econometric models were used to examine the relationship between regional polycentricity and CO2 concentrations. After robust testing, we confirmed that polycentric structures decrease the mean CO2 concentrations of city regions, significantly reducing CO2 concentrations in primary city centers and mildly increasing those in city subcenters. Further quantitative analyses of the mechanisms underlying these patterns revealed that the CO2-reduction effect of polycentric structures is due to the balancing of reductions in commuting duration, transference of industrial CO2 to neighboring areas, and an increase in household CO2 emissions.