Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 369, Issue 6500, Pages 208-+Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.abc3517
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Funding
- Investissement d'Avenir program
- Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program [ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID]
- Sante Publique France
- INCEPTION project [PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [101003589, 874735]
- European Research Council [804744]
- University of Cambridge COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant
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France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.
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