Life-cycle environmental implications of China's ban on post-consumer plastics import

China used to receive more than 50% of the global post-consumer plastics export, the largest share of which was PET bottles. However, China recently banned the import of foreign wastes including waste plastics. The original intention of this ban was to protect China's ecosystem quality and human health, while its environmental implications have yet to be examined. This study analyzes the life-cycle environmental impacts of this ban on post-consumer PET under a number of post-ban scenarios. Our analysis shows that the ban may substantially exacerbate environmental impacts both in China and globally, if China, in the absence of imported recyclates, increases its virgin PET fiber production using carbon-intensive coal as the feedstock. Recycling waste PET bottles within the countries that generate them to replace China's virgin PET fiber production, however, is shown to significantly reduce life-cycle environmental impacts both in China and globally. Our study highlights the potential unintended environmental consequences of the ban and the need to consider marginal technologies and their consequences in policy decisions. Our results call for cost-effective recycling infrastructure among the waste-producing countries and the mechanism to coordinate plastics recycling on a global scale.