Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-MUNICIPAL ENGINEER
Volume 174, Issue 3, Pages 120-135Publisher
ICE PUBLISHING
DOI: 10.1680/jmuen.18.00025
Keywords
disaster engineering; seismic engineering; social impact
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A probabilistic risk assessment model is used to evaluate the seismic hazard in the northwest of Baja California, showing that earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw=6.4-7.2 and return periods of up to 100 years can affect an average of 2850 people with economic losses of US$144 million.
A probabilistic risk assessment is presented for earthquakes in the northwest of the Mexican state of Baja California. Six seismic sources are considered for determining the seismic hazard, and vulnerability and exposure are associated with the structural integrity of one- and two-storey houses and the population density of their users. The risk assessment is based on the Central America probabilistic risk assessment model. The impact estimate is performed for the two most-populated cities in Baja California, namely Mexicali and Tijuana. The results show that for earthquakes with magnitudes of M-w = 6.4-7.2 and return periods of up to 100 years, 2850 people are affected on average, with economic losses of US$144 million.
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