Journal
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
Volume 146, Issue 5, Pages -Publisher
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001184
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Funding
- Hydro Research Foundation through United States Department of Energy (DOE)
- National Science Foundation's Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship (IGERT) program in water diplomacy at Tufts University (NSF OIA) [0966093]
- Vermont Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) program (NSF OIA) [1556770]
- US DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Water Power Technologies Office
- US Department of Energy [DE-AC05-00OR22725]
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Short streamflow records make it difficult to determine the extent to which discharge changes in excess of ecological thresholds are due to dam operations or natural variability. Unnecessary changes to reservoir operating rules can reduce off-stream benefits, whereas no changes to rules when thresholds are exceeded can degrade downstream riverine ecosystems. We introduce a Bayesian decision tree approach to a hypothetical hydropower-ecosystem decision problem that compares expected in-stream and off-stream losses resulting from incorrect decisions. Expected losses are computed using loss probabilities derived using Bayes' theorem, type I and II errors, and prior probabilities of alteration. Decision-tree recommendations compared with those from deterministic and null hypothesis significance testing under a variety of conditions illuminate the benefits of including valuations of hydropower and ecological losses as well as type II error probabilities in reservoir operation decisions. This is the first study to both introduce and demonstrate the value of Bayesian decision trees for addressing tradeoffs between hydropower and ecosystem benefits and losses.
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