The Roles of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Driving Arctic Warming Due to European Aerosol Reductions

Clean air policies can have significant impacts on climate in remote regions. Previous modeling studies have shown that the temperature response to European sulfate aerosol reductions is largest in the Arctic. Here we investigate the atmospheric and ocean roles in driving this enhanced Arctic warming using a set of fully coupled and slab-ocean simulations (specified ocean heat convergence fluxes) with the Norwegian Earth system model (NorESM), under scenarios with high and low European aerosol emissions relative to year 2000. We show that atmospheric processes drive most of the Arctic response. The ocean pathway plays a secondary role inducing small temperature changes mostly in the opposite direction of the atmospheric response. Important modulators of the temperature response patterns are changes in sea ice extent and subsequent turbulent heat flux exchange, suggesting that a proper representation of Arctic sea ice and turbulent changes is key to predicting the Arctic response to midlatitude aerosol forcing. Plain Language Summary Aerosols are liquid or solid particles suspended in air, which may have adverse air quality and health impacts. Sulfate aerosols also have a cooling influence on climate and can mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced global warming. While aerosol emissions are variable in space and time, their impacts are not limited to where they are emitted. In fact, studies using global climate models have shown that changing sulfur dioxide emissions in Europe can have significant impacts on Arctic climate. Here we investigate the roles of changes in atmospheric and ocean heat transport in driving these changes in the Arctic by conducting a series of climate model simulations with specified anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions and different ocean heat transport fluxes. We find that changes through the atmosphere play a primary role in affecting the Arctic climate. These changes are modulated by changes in sea ice extent and the energy exchange between ocean and atmosphere in the sub-Arctic. Aerosol-driven changes in ocean heat transport play a smaller, secondary role in the Arctic and tend to reduce the impacts. Our results show that the proper representation of Arctic sea ice is crucial for accurately modeling the Arctic response to changes in midlatitude aerosol forcing.