Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 9, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087965
Keywords
sea ice; CMIP6; climate models
Categories
Funding
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFC1407205]
- Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institute of China (ShuXingbei Young Talent Program) [2019S06]
- Chinese Natural Science Foundation [41941012]
- National Key R&D Program of China [2016YFA0602200]
- Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institute of China [2016S03]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41821004]
- Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change)
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Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents (SIEs) from 44 coupled models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated by comparing them with observations and CMIP5 results. The CMIP6 multimodel mean can adequately reproduce the seasonal cycles of both the Arctic and Antarctic SIE. The observed Arctic September SIE declining trend (-0.82 +/- 0.18 million km(2) per decade) between 1979 and 2014 is slightly underestimated in CMIP6 models (-0.70 +/- 0.06 million km(2) per decade). The observed weak but significant upward trend of the Antarctic SIE is not captured, which was an issue already in the CMIP5 phase. Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models have lower intermodel spreads in SIE mean values and trends, although their SIE biases are relatively larger. The CMIP6 models did not reproduce the new summer tendencies after 2000, including the faster decline of Arctic SIE and the larger interannual variability in Antarctic SIE.
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