Direct and indirect impacts of high-tech industry development on CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from China

Vigorously developing high-tech industry has been considered to be an effective way to coordinate economic growth with excessive carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, previous studies have not explored the heterogeneous impacts of high-tech industry on CO2 emissions in regions with different levels of high-tech industry development, and not distinguished the direct and indirect impacts. Based on STIRPAT model, this study investigates the impacts of high-tech industry development on CO2 emissions in China between 2005 and 2016. Adopting the K-medians cluster method, effects in regions with high, middle, and low levels of high-tech industry development are considered. Indirect effects of high-tech industry development on CO2 emissions by affecting industry structure upgrades and economic growth are explored. Empirical results illustrate a positive U-shaped nonlinear link between the level of high-tech industry development and CO2 emissions at the national level and regional (high, middle, and low) level. In terms of indirect impacts, high-tech industry development attenuates the reduction of CO2 emissions due to industry structure upgrades, and promotes economic growth to increase CO2 emissions slightly. The indirect impact intensity gradually decreases as the level of high-tech industry development decreases across three regions. Reasonable implications of our findings are proposed.