Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
Volume 183, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109190
Keywords
Dengue; EASM; Climate variables; Ecological niche model; Generalised additive model
Funding
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC1200803, 2016YFC1200802]
- National Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955504]
- China Prosperity Strategic Programme Fund (SPF) [15LCI1]
- Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program [2018NY-135]
- Major Science Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science [2018K-04]
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Objective: To investigate the relationship between climate variables, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and large outbreaks of dengue in China. Methods: We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) to analyse the influence of climate factors on dengue occurrence and predict dengue outbreak areas in China. Furthermore, we formulated a generalised additive model (GAM) to quantify the impact of the EASM on dengue occurrence in mainland China from 1980 to 2016. Results: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter had a 62.6% contribution to dengue outbreaks. Southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces are more vulnerable to dengue emergence and resurgence. In addition, we found population density had a 68.7% contribution to dengue widely distribution in China using ENMs. Statistical analysis indicated a dome-shaped association between EASM and dengue outbreak using GAM, with the greatest impact in the South-East of China. Besides, there was a positive nonlinear association between monthly average temperature and dengue occurrence. Conclusion: We demonstrated the influence of climate factors and East Asian summer monsoon on dengue outbreaks, providing a framework for future studies on the association between climate change and vector-borne diseases.
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