Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
Volume 184, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109350
Keywords
CORDEX-SEA; Dynamical downscaling; Drought; Extreme precipitation; Climate change
Funding
- Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP) [S-140/LPDP.3/2014]
- Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research Grants [ARCP2013-17NMY-Tangang/ST-2013-017, ARCP2014-07CMY-2014-Tangang/ST-2015-013, ARCP2015-04CMY-Tangang/ST-2015-003]
- Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia [ICONIC-2013-001]
- Malaysian MOHE [FRGS/1/2017/WAB05/UKM/01/2]
- Thailand Research Fund [RDG5630019]
- National Research Council of Thailand [2557-73, 2559-226]
- BMKG Research Fund
- Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) [105.06-2018.05]
- Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Council for Industry, Energy, and Emerging Technology Research and Development (DOST-PCIEERD) of the Philippines
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This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.
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