Journal
COMPUTERS & GEOSCIENCES
Volume 141, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.cageo.2020.104527
Keywords
Landslide; Displacement prediction; Risk-averse adaptation; Hybrid model; Penalty mechanism
Funding
- Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province [KYCX20_0484]
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFC1508603]
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Reliable and accurate landslide displacement prediction is the key to early warning system. Most studies focus only on accuracy of landslide displacement estimation and ignore catastrophic consequences caused by underestimated landslide displacement. This paper investigates a landslide displacement prediction method with risk-averse adaptation. In this methodology, double exponential smoothing method is utilized to predict trend term of landslide displacement, while hybrid model of support vector regression and long short-term memory network is developed to predict periodic term of landslide displacement. Considering the adverse effect of underestimated displacement, a cost function with a penalty mechanism is proposed to force the underestimated displacement to shift to an overestimation. Finally, the predicted cumulative displacement is obtained by superposing the predicted trend displacement with the periodic displacement. Verification results on Baishuihe landslide in China indicate that the proposed approach for landslide displacement prediction can maintain a high prediction accuracy and reduce the underestimation rate, thereby achieving adaptive avoidance of risks.
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