Journal
CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL
Volume 192, Issue 19, Pages E489-E496Publisher
CMA-CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.200457
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- National Institutes of Health [UO1-GM087719, 1RO1AI151176-01]
- Burnett & Stender Families Endowment
- Notsew Orm Sands Foundation
- CIHR [OV4 -170643]
- COVID19 Rapid Research
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Canadian Foundation for Innovation
Ask authors/readers for more resources
BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province. METHODS: We developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset. RESULTS: Without self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation of 40%, demand would still exceed available (unoccupied) ICU bed capacity. INTERPRETATION: At the peak of COVID-19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with self-isolation at 40%. Our results show the coming challenge for the health care system in Canada and the potential role of self-isolation in reducing demand for hospital-based and ICU care.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available