Journal
BULLETIN OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
Volume 18, Issue 8, Pages 3487-3516Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10518-020-00850-y
Keywords
Ground motion models; Model scoring; Weights; Italy; Seismic hazard model
Funding
- Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri-Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC)
- European Plate Observing System (EPOS) EU project [676564]
- H2020 project SERA (Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe) [730900]
- Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC)
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The aim of this paper is to identify the ground motion models (GMMs), applicable in active shallow crustal regions (ASCRs) and subduction zones (SZs), to be used for the new release of the seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19) for peak ground acceleration and 12 ordinates of the acceleration response spectra (5% damping) in the period range 0.05-4 s. The steps to achieve such goal are: (1) a pre-selection of the GMMs that takes into account the suitability for the application to the Italian territory and the fulfillment of the new hazard model requirements; (2) the assessment of a proper scoring of the pre-selected GMMs using strong-motion data recorded in Italy; (3) the selection of the GMMs to be used in the hazard calculation. The final set of GMMs describes satisfactorily the epistemic uncertainty of the ground shaking process, privileging the simplicity and flexibility of the functional form. Finally, the weights of the selected GMMs are assigned combining the results of the scoring and the weights obtained through an experts' elicitation.
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