Predicting post-operative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leak following endoscopic transnasal pituitary and anterior skull base surgery: a multivariate analysis

Background Post-operative CSF leak is the major source of morbidity following endoscopic transsphenoidal surgery. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with post-operative CSF leak in patients undergoing this surgery and facilitate the prospective identification of patients at higher risk of this complication. Methods A review of a prospectively maintained database containing details of 270 endoscopic transsphenoidal operations performed by the senior author over a 9-year period was performed. Univariate analysis was performed using the Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests, as appropriate. A logistic regression model was constructed for multivariate analysis. Results The rate of post-operative CSF leak in this series was 9%. On univariate analysis, previous surgery, resection of craniopharyngiomas, adenomas causing Cushing's disease and intra-operative CSF leaks were associated with an increased risk of post-operative CSF leak. The use of a vascularised nasoseptal flap and increasing surgical experience were associated with a decreased rate of CSF leak. On multivariate analysis, a resection of tumour for Cushing's disease (OR 5.79, 95% CI 1.53-21.95, p = 0.01) and an intra-operative CSF leak (OR 4.56, 95% CI 1.56-13.32, p = 0.006) were associated with an increased risk of post-operative CSF leak. Increasing surgical experience (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.04-0.46, p = 0.001) was strongly associated with a decreased risk of post-operative CSF leak. Conclusions Increasing surgical experience is a strong predictor of a decreased risk of developing post-operative CSF leak following endoscopic transsphenoidal surgery. Patients with Cushing's disease and those who develop an intra-operative CSF leak should be managed with meticulous skull base repair and close observation for signs of CSF leak post-operatively.