Journal
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
Volume 8, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.00041
Keywords
kriging surrogate; uncertainty quantification; tsunami modeling; hazard analysis; sensitivity analysis
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Funding
- French National Agency for Research (ANR)
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This paper illustrates how an emulator (or meta-model) of a tsunami code can be a useful tool to evaluate or qualify tsunami hazard levels associated with both specific and unknown tsunamigenic seismic sources. The meta-models are statistical tools permitting to drastically reduce the computational time necessary for tsunami simulations. As a consequence they can be used to explore the tsunamigenic potential of a seismic zone, by taking into account an extended set of tsunami scenarios. We illustrate these concepts by studying the tsunamis generated by the Azores-Gibraltar Plate Boundary (AGPB) and potentially impacting the French Atlantic Coast. We first analyze the impact of two realistic scenarios corresponding to potential sources of the 1755-Lisbon tsunami (when uncertainty on seismic parameters is considered). We then show how meta-models could permit to qualify the tsunamis generated by this seismic area. All the results are finally discussed in light of tsunami hazard issued by the TSUMAPS-NEAM research project available online (). From this methodological study, it appears that tsunami hazard issued by TSUMAPS-NEAM research project is envelop, even when compared to all the likely and unlikely tsunami scenarios generated in the AGPB area.
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