Modeling and urban planning: A systematic review of performance-based approaches

New planning approaches based on performance measures of the urban system are emerging to face the current challenges to the sustainability of cities. Through modelling, planners can understand the general behavior of the system and, consequently, decide the strategic allocation of land uses and human activities with respect to performances of the considered processes and the socio-ecological and economic uncertainties. Thus, model-based planning approaches present strong similarities with the performance-based planning (PBP) approaches and modelling can represent a valuable tool for the evolution and expansion of PBP. In this paper, a systematic review has explored a) the contribution of modelling within PBP approaches in moving cities towards sustainability; b) the applicability for modeling in PBP in urban contexts. Twelve operational examples of model-based urban planning and PBP have been identified in energy, water infrastructure, land use and ecological planning areas. A scoring system for potential model applicability in urban planning was tested in the sampled case studies. Moreover, several critical elements in the relation between modeling approaches and PBP have been identified. Finally, a discussion on the system performance concept as a new urban planning paradigm has been proposed.