Evaluation and Forewarning Management of Regional Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province, China

The evaluation of resources and environment carrying capacity (RECC) is the basis of strategic policy for the development and utilization of regional resources, economic development, and environmental protection. The magnitude of carrying capacity of resources and environment is the result of the balance of multiple aspects including economy, resources, and society. In order to reflect this multi-dimensional vector relationship, a multi-level and multi-targeted evaluation index system needs to be constructed. The paper, adopting the analytic hierarchy process and including PM2.5 (Particulate matter with diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns in the atmosphere) into the index system, establishes the evaluation system of regional RECC and analyzes the trend of RECC in Hefei city with the index system to put forward the countermeasures of forewarning management. The results are shown as follows: (1) Overall, the RECC in Hefei city presents a declining trend, with a reduction from a middle to lower level during the year 2009 to 2013, of which the year 2010 to 2011 showed the fastest decline and the year 2013 witnessed a slight increase; (2) from the perspective of mutual influence of indexes, the main reason causing the decline of RECC in Hefei city is that the natural resources and environment carrying capacity was in a declining trend from the year 2009 to 2013, respectively declining from middle and high levels to a lower level, while the social economy carrying capacity in Hefei city was in an increasing trend as a whole from the year 2009 to 2013, with an increase from lower level to middle level. From the perspective of the forewarning management of RECC, it focuses on improving the forewarning response system of regional resources and environment carrying capacity, establishes the sharing mechanism of RECC monitoring data and improves the responsibility assigning mechanism of RECC. The study enriches the evaluation index system of RECC and proves that it is reasonable and efficient to build a differentiated index system to scientifically recognize RECC in different regions, having reference value to evaluate similar regional RECC.